Market Soars as IT, Banking Lead Gains; Wipro, MTNL Shine While DMart Slumps on Earnings Miss

The Indian equity markets showed resilience on October 14, closing on a positive note. The Sensex climbed by 591.69 points, or 0.73%, ending at 81,973.05, while the Nifty gained 163.70 points, or 0.66%, to settle at 25,128. A broad-based buying spree across various sectors, except metals, contributed to the rally. Leading the charge were stocks from Information Technology, banking, and real estate, all of which saw gains of around 1%.

Transformers and Rectifiers India Surges on Block Deal

Transformers and Rectifiers India experienced a strong rally, hitting its upper circuit of 5% following a significant block deal worth ₹211 crore. The deal involved 27 lakh shares traded at a floor price of ₹780 per share, which marked a 2.6% discount from the previous closing price. The stock closed at ₹819.30, reflecting investor confidence in the transaction.

MTNL Gains Amid Potential Revival Plan

Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) saw its shares rise by 4.8%, driven by reports suggesting a potential revival plan. The PSU telecom provider, which has a debt exceeding ₹31,000 crore, may avoid the insolvency route if a fund infusion is approved. This news provided a boost to the stock, signaling a possible turnaround for the struggling company.

Premier Energies Rallies on Securing Orders

Premier Energies witnessed a surge, climbing by 10% during trading, though it closed 2.3% higher at ₹1,133. The spike was attributed to the company's announcement of securing multiple orders totaling ₹765 crore. These orders include ₹632 crore for solar modules and ₹133 crore for solar cells, bolstering the company's growth prospects.

Wipro Climbs on Anticipation of Bonus Shares

Wipro shares rose by 4.24% to ₹550.70, as investors showed optimism ahead of an October 17 board meeting. The company is expected to discuss the issuance of bonus shares, which, if approved, would be its fourth bonus issue, following previous ones in 2010, 2017, and 2019. The news of the possible corporate action spurred interest in the stock.

Hindustan Construction Receives Major Contract

Hindustan Construction Company saw a 3.5% rise in its stock price, closing at ₹43.74. The increase was driven by news of the company securing a ₹1,031.6 crore contract from the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation. The project involves constructing a two-lane bridge across Agardanda Creek, boosting investor confidence in the company's future prospects.

Avenue Supermarts Tumbles After Earnings Disappointment

Avenue Supermarts, the parent company of DMart, saw its stock plummet by over 8%, closing at ₹4,191. The sharp decline was due to disappointing Q2 earnings, where both revenue and net profit failed to meet expectations. The company reported the slowest revenue growth in four years, raising concerns about future performance.

Bajaj Housing Finance Drops as Lock-in Period Ends

Bajaj Housing Finance shares fell by 6% to ₹142, coinciding with the expiration of a one-month lock-in period for anchor investors. With 12.6 crore shares, or 2% of the company's equity, now eligible for trading, this increase in supply put pressure on the stock price, according to a note from Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research.

Tata Chemicals Falls on Profit Booking

Tata Chemicals' stock declined by over 7%, closing at ₹1,099, as investors engaged in profit booking after a recent rally. Despite the drop, technical indicators, including Bollinger Bands and moving averages, suggest the stock remains in a bullish trend. The overall outlook is positive, as indicated by daily, weekly, and monthly RSI readings.

Sudarshan Chemical Industries Sheds Gains After Rally

After a stellar rally in the previous session, shares of Sudarshan Chemical Industries fell by 7.5%, ending at ₹1,111. The earlier surge had been triggered by the announcement of acquiring Heubach's global pigment business for ₹1,180 crore. However, profit booking led to a reversal of fortunes for the stock.

Indian Energy Exchange Under Pressure Due to Market Coupling Concerns

Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) shares fell 4.3% to ₹195.70 amid renewed concerns about market coupling. The Power Secretary confirmed that work on the market coupling mechanism is ongoing, which has been a persistent overhang for the stock. Despite the decline, the company's strategic positioning in the energy market remains strong.

Conclusion

The Indian stock market saw a mix of positive and negative movements on October 14, reflecting investor sentiment across different sectors. While companies like Wipro, MTNL, and Premier Energies showed gains on specific news and developments, others like Avenue Supermarts and Bajaj Housing Finance faced selling pressure due to broader concerns. Overall, the market closed in the green, driven by robust performance from IT and banking stocks, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook.

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Angel One Shares Surge Over 7% as Investec Predicts Major Upside, Maintains 'Buy' Recommendation

Stock Performance: On October 3, 2024, Angel One's stock surged by over 7%, following a 'Buy' recommendation from Investec, a global brokerage firm. The share price climbed to ₹2,767.95 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), up by 6.46%. This marked the stock's fourth consecutive day of gains, with an 11.61% rise over the period. The broader market, meanwhile, was navigating the impact of new F&O regulations imposed by SEBI. However, Angel One's stock showed resilience in this environment, bolstered by the positive outlook from Investec.

Over the last year, Angel One's stock has surged by 50.06%, and in the past three years, it has gained 102.42%, reflecting its strong market performance. The company's consistent growth has been attributed to its ability to navigate regulatory challenges and capitalize on favorable market trends.

Brokerage Call and Forecast: Investec reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Angel One, citing strong future growth potential. The brokerage also raised its profit-after-tax (PAT) estimates for FY26 by 7%. The new price target set by Investec stands at ₹3,000 per share, offering significant upside from the current price levels. According to the brokerage report, the impact of the newly announced SEBI F&O regulations on Angel One's volumes is expected to be lower than initially feared. The revised guidelines indicate a 25% reduction in F&O volumes, down from the earlier estimate of 30%, due to less severe regulatory changes.

Additionally, Angel One has strategically increased its prices to mitigate the regulatory impact, allowing the company to sustain revenue growth. Investec emphasized that the firm has multiple avenues to continue increasing revenue in the future, further reinforcing its bullish stance on the stock.

SEBI's New F&O Norms: SEBI's recent decision to tighten F&O (futures and options) trading norms had sparked concerns across the brokerage industry. However, the final regulations turned out to be less stringent than initially anticipated, leading to a less pronounced impact on trading volumes. Despite these changes, Angel One has proactively adjusted its pricing structure, demonstrating its agility in navigating regulatory environments.

Financial Performance: Angel One has delivered strong financial performance in the April-June quarter of FY25. The company reported a net profit of ₹297 crore, marking a 36% year-on-year (YoY) growth. Revenue surged by 74% YoY to ₹1,394 crore, compared to ₹802 crore in the same period last year. On the operating front, Angel One's EBITDA rose by nearly 49% YoY to ₹474 crore, up from ₹317 crore in the year-ago quarter.

This impressive financial growth has been driven by Angel One's expanding customer base and effective cost management strategies. The company's performance in Q1FY25 has further strengthened investor confidence, especially with the brokerage's ability to generate strong revenues even in a challenging regulatory environment.

Outlook: With a robust financial performance and the brokerage community's support, Angel One is well-positioned for continued growth. Investec's upgraded PAT forecast and its ₹3,000 price target underline the potential for further upside in the stock. Despite regulatory headwinds, Angel One's proactive measures, including price hikes and strategic growth levers, have set it on a path of sustained profitability and market leadership.

Conclusion: Angel One's ability to adapt to regulatory changes while maintaining strong financial performance has solidified its position in the market. With Investec's optimistic outlook and a substantial price target, the stock remains an attractive investment opportunity, particularly for long-term investors seeking exposure to the financial services and broking sector.

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SEBI Study Reveals 93% of Individual F&O Traders Faced Losses Between FY22 and FY24

A recent study conducted by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has revealed that nearly 93% of individual traders participating in the futures and options (F&O) market faced significant financial losses over the past three fiscal years, spanning from FY22 to FY24. The analysis covered over 1 crore investors, with most experiencing average losses of approximately Rs 2 lakh each.

Key Highlights of the Study:

• Aggregate Losses: Individual traders in the F&O market collectively suffered Rs 1.8 lakh crore in total losses during the period.
• Loss Concentration: Among the worst-hit traders, the top 3.5% (approximately 4 lakh traders) faced an average loss of Rs 28 lakh each, including transaction costs.
• Minority Gained: Only 1% of individual traders managed to secure profits exceeding Rs 1 lakh, even after factoring in transaction costs.

This report follows a similar SEBI study published in January 2023, which indicated that 89% of individual equity F&O traders had incurred losses in FY22. The updated analysis expands on this by examining three fiscal years and providing a more comprehensive view of individual traders' profit and loss patterns.

Insights from the SEBI Report

The study shows a clear disparity between individual and institutional traders. While individual traders struggled to turn profits, proprietary traders and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) saw notable gains. Specifically, proprietary traders earned Rs 33,000 crore in gross trading profits, and FPIs made Rs 28,000 crore in FY24, before transaction costs.

Interestingly, 97% of FPI profits and 96% of proprietary trading gains were attributed to algorithmic trading, highlighting the dominance of technology-driven strategies in profit generation. This contrasts sharply with the results of individual traders, who spent an average of Rs 26,000 per person on transaction costs in FY24. Over the three years, individuals collectively spent around Rs 50,000 crore on transaction fees, with brokerage charges accounting for 51% of these costs and exchange fees representing 20%.

Trading Patterns and Demographics

The SEBI study also sheds light on the changing demographic patterns in the F&O market:

• Increased Youth Participation: The proportion of young traders (below 30 years) surged from 31% in FY23 to 43% in FY24.
• Geographical Shifts: Traders from Beyond Top 30 (B30) cities made up 72.2% of the total F&O trader base, surpassing the percentage of mutual fund investors (61.7%) from these regions.

Despite the high rate of losses, more than 75% of individual traders continued to trade in F&O markets across consecutive years. This persistence in trading, despite repeated financial setbacks, indicates either a strong belief in potential gains or a lack of understanding of the risks involved.

Income and Financial Profiles

The study also examined the income profiles of F&O traders. Notably:

• Over 75% of traders declared annual incomes of less than Rs 5 lakh in FY24, yet they actively participated in high-risk, high-cost F&O trading.
• The distribution of losses and costs disproportionately affected lower-income traders, raising concerns about the financial literacy and risk management practices of these individuals.

Broader Implications

The findings of this study are significant, particularly as the F&O market has seen an influx of individual participants in recent years. The results highlight the substantial financial risks associated with trading in F&O markets for individual investors, especially those with limited resources and knowledge.

While institutional traders, often equipped with sophisticated algorithms and strategies, continue to profit, the vast majority of individual traders face considerable losses, raising questions about market fairness, accessibility, and the adequacy of investor protection mechanisms.

This report serves as a reminder for individual investors to exercise caution, consider their financial capacities, and seek professional advice before engaging in F&O trading.

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Demat Accounts Surge: Over 42 Lakh Additions in June, Total Exceeds 16 Crore

In June 2024, India witnessed a significant surge in the opening of demat accounts, with over 42.4 lakh new accounts added. This represents the highest growth rate since February 2024, surpassing the previous month's addition of 36 lakh and significantly higher than the 23.6 lakh accounts opened in the same month last year. This marks the fourth time in recent months that new demat account additions have crossed the 40 lakh mark, a milestone previously achieved in December 2023, January 2024, and February 2024.

With these new additions, the total number of demat accounts now stands at over 16.2 crore, reflecting a 4.24% increase from the previous month and a 34.66% rise compared to last year. This sharp rise in account openings is attributed to a stable market, bolstered by strong foreign investor activity and a growing sense of confidence in the newly formed government.

Market analysts suggest that the current bullish sentiment in Indian equities, characterized by continued foreign investments and strong returns, has played a key role in driving the surge in demat accounts. The lack of market corrections has further fueled investor interest, as many new participants fear missing out on profitable opportunities. Additionally, ongoing IPOs, many of which have been heavily subscribed and are listing at premiums, have drawn fresh interest from retail investors.

As tax-filing season approaches, more individuals are looking to diversify their investments into equity markets, with the hope of increasing returns and reducing tax liabilities. Brokerages have also intensified their campaigns to promote financial inclusion, encouraging more people to enter the markets. According to Rajesh Palvia, an analyst at Axis Securities, the Nifty index is expected to reach 25,000 by the Budget period, with a year-end target of 28,000, further fueling optimism.

However, analysts caution that not all of the new accounts represent entirely new investors. Some are individuals shifting between brokers or opening multiple accounts to take advantage of different offers. A portion of the accounts could also be duplicates. Despite this, the momentum shows no signs of slowing down, and as long as markets perform well, the pace of demat account openings is expected to continue rising.

Deepak Jasani, an analyst at HDFC Securities, points out that the surge in demat accounts is a reflection of the broader market trend, with both retail and institutional investors showing increasing confidence in India's equity markets. As market sentiment remains positive, the influx of new accounts is likely to continue throughout the year.

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Nifty 50 Eyes Further Gains: 15 Key Points to Know Before Market Opening

On September 17, 2024, the Nifty 50 achieved a new closing high of 25,419 with a moderate gain of 35 points. Positive signals from momentum indicators like RSI and MACD supported the bullish trend. Experts suggest that if the index decisively closes above 25,500 or breaks through its upward-sloping resistance trendline, the market could rally towards 25,800. The immediate support level is pegged at 25,200.

Here are 15 crucial data points to guide your trading decisions for the next session:

1) Key Nifty 50 Levels

• Resistance: 25,438, 25,460, and 25,494 (based on pivot points).
• Support: 25,370, 25,349, and 25,315.

2) Key Bank Nifty Levels

• Resistance: 52,262, 52,309, and 52,385 (based on pivot points).
• Support: 52,110, 52,063, and 51,987.

3) Nifty Call Options Data

• 26,000 strike has the maximum open interest, with 1.07 crore contracts, indicating strong resistance.
• 25,500 strike saw 47.47 lakh contracts of open interest, offering short-term insights into resistance levels.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

• 25,000 strike holds the highest open interest of 60.69 lakh contracts, acting as key support.
• Significant Put writing was observed at 25,400 strike, with an addition of 10.32 lakh contracts.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

• 53,000 strike has the highest open interest at 34.85 lakh contracts, marking resistance.
• Heavy Call writing was noted at 52,500 strike, with 13.87 lakh contracts added.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

• 52,000 strike saw the highest open interest with 36.11 lakh contracts, serving as critical support.

7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)

• DIIs bought shares worth Rs 874 crore, while FIIs net bought Rs 483 crore, signaling positive institutional interest.

8) Put-Call Ratio (PCR)

• The Nifty PCR increased to 1.3, indicating bullish sentiment, as traders are more inclined towards Put selling.

9) India VIX

• India VIX, an indicator of market volatility, rose by 1.04% to 12.59, still favoring bulls despite a slight uptick.

10) Long Build-up

• 30 stocks showed a long build-up, with rising open interest and price, suggesting continued bullish positions.

11) Long Unwinding

• 47 stocks saw long unwinding, marked by declining open interest and prices, indicating profit booking.

12) Short Build-up

• A total of 66 stocks experienced a short build-up, with increasing open interest and falling prices, indicating bearish sentiment.

13) Short-Covering

• 41 stocks witnessed short-covering, signaling traders closing their short positions due to rising prices.

14) High Delivery Trades

• Delivery trades showed strong investor interest in select stocks, indicating a preference for long-term holdings.

15) Stocks Under F&O Ban

• New Entries: Biocon, Punjab National Bank.
• Existing: Aarti Industries, Balrampur Chini Mills, Bandhan Bank, and others.

These insights provide a solid foundation for navigating the market's opening on Wednesday. Ensure you adjust your strategies based on key support and resistance levels to spot potential opportunities.

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